CALCULATOR EXPECTED VALUE ↑EDGE
EV Calculator
Expected value is what a bet is worth per wager once you account for how often it actually wins.
SHARP READ
Your probability beats the 52.4% this price implies, so the bet is worth taking at this number — and only at this number.
5.00 — EV PER $100 STAKED
SUCKER READ
A +EV bet is a bet that wins. If it loses, the number was wrong.
The bet
What the price says
Decimal odds1.909
Implied probability52.38%
Break-even rate52.38%
Your edge over the price +2.62pp
The break-even rate is how often this bet must win just to stay level. Anything you believe above it is the edge.
What it pays
Profit if it wins$90.91
Loss if it doesn't−$100.00
What it is worth
Expected value +$5.00
Return on stake +5.00%
Expected value is only as good as the probability you feed it. Guessing your own number high turns a losing bet into a winning one on this page and nowhere else. Anchor it to the devigged price at a sharp book rather than to a hunch — and remember EV is a long-run average, not a forecast for tonight.