CALCULATOR KELLY CRITERION ↑EDGE
Kelly Calculator
Kelly answers one question: given this edge, what stake grows a bankroll fastest without risking it?
SHARP READ
At this price the edge is 15.50%. Full Kelly would stake 14.09% of bankroll; quarter Kelly gives up a little growth for far less risk of ruin.
3.52 — % OF BANKROLL
SUCKER READ
Bigger edge, bigger bet. Push it when you're confident.
The bet
Is there an edge
Decimal odds2.100
Net odds received1.100
Edge on the bet +15.50%
Kelly stakes nothing without an edge. If this row is negative, the correct bet size is zero whatever the price looks like.
What to stake
Full Kelly 14.09%
Quarter Kelly 3.52%
Recommended wager $176.14
What it swings
If it wins+$193.75
If it doesn't−$176.14
Full Kelly is optimal only if your probability is exactly right. It rarely is — and Kelly is brutally sensitive to an overstated edge, which is why most bettors run a quarter or a half. Overstate your win rate by a few points and full Kelly stakes an amount that can bust you while you are still, on paper, correct.