CALCULATOR IMPLIED PROBABILITY

Implied Probability Calculator

Every price on the board is a percentage in disguise. This turns the number the book posted into the chance it is quoting.

SHARP READ

This price quotes 52.38%, so the side has to land that often just to return the $100.00 it costs. The book's fee is already inside that number, which is why the fair chance sits below it.

52.38% — WHAT THIS PRICE QUOTES
SUCKER READ

If the number says 52%, it wins 52% of the time. That's the book's honest estimate.

The price

What the price quotes

Implied probability52.38%
Break-even win rate52.38%

Those two rows are the same number twice, and that is the whole lesson. The percentage a price implies is exactly the share of the time the bet must land to give you your money back.

The same price, three ways

American-110
Decimal1.9091
Fractional9091/10000

One number wearing three sets of clothes. Decimal is the plainest of them: it is what one unit becomes, stake included, so its reciprocal is the probability with no arithmetic in between.

What it pays

To win$90.91
Total payout$190.91

Payout includes the stake coming back. Profit is the smaller of the two rows, and it is the one the probability above is priced against.

WHAT THE NUMBER DOESN'T KNOW

A single price carries the book's fee, so the percentage here is not the market's true estimate of the chance. Add up both sides of a market and the total clears 100% — that excess is the hold, and it is sitting inside this number. To get the fair read, price both sides together and strip the fee out first.

How to Read Odds−110 is not a coin flip · 5:00 No-Vig Fair Oddsstrip the fee out of a two-sided market Put the math on your sidePRICING